What if Boko Haram and ISWAP overrun northern Nigerian cities?
Boko Haram/ISWAP overrunning northeastern Nigerian cities is a humanitarian and governance crisis but distant from oil infrastructure — the Niger Delta and offshore output sit in the south, so Brent carries only a small risk premium. Analogue: the 2014-2015 Boko Haram territorial peak, which displaced millions yet left Nigerian crude exports and oil prices largely intact. The skeptical read: this threatens Abuja's authority and security spend, not barrels, so the oil leg should be faded unless unrest spreads south.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Boko Haram and ISWAP overrun multiple northeastern Nigerian cities, displacing millions and threatening Abuja's authority. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.5% hist +0.91–+7.41% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.69–-0.48% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.11–-0.48% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.09–-0.5% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 5 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.27–+1.1% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.03–-0.36% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 7 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -5.41–+1.31% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.71–+4.28% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.17–+0.64% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.47–+1.28% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.56–+0.36% · other way +3.19% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.92–+0.13% · other way -0.61% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.0–+1.24% · other way +0.91% (n=12) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.22–+0.81% · other way +2.93% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade LONG on CL/BRENT: a Nigerian jihadist surge cuts exports and lifts crude; history's negative read rests on OPEC/Saudi oversupply crashes (2014/2020) — wrong-regime, wrong-sign sample.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.0% · 5d +3.5% | 77% | 12 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 25 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 72% | 32 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -4.8% | 70% | 32 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.4% | 70% | 25 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 68% | 36 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +4.5% | 66% | 29 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 36 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.8% | 62% | 26 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.9% | 65% | 17 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 12 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 22 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +0.7% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -4.8% | 61% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
ISWAP/Boko Haram persistently active; overrunning multiple cities is escalation beyond current tempo over 18mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.