What if Nvidia's next-generation chips pile up in a glut?
A Blackwell-successor inventory glut breaks the perpetual-shortage narrative, hitting Nvidia and HBM/Micron on pricing power — but TSMC catches a bid as a slack in scarcity eases its packaging bottleneck (note the divergent +0.5%). Rhymes with the Dec-2024 Micron guidance-driven selloff. Skeptic's note: channel-check gluts are notoriously noisy and often reflect a product transition, not end-demand softness.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Channel checks reveal a Blackwell-successor inventory pile-up, breaking the perpetual-shortage narrative. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.