What if a major commercial fishery stock crashes?
A commercial-fishery crash hits protein supply and coastal economies — the read is seafood/fishmeal prices and protein-substitution, not row-crop grains. Rhymes with the 2014-16 'Blob' Pacific marine heatwave that collapsed cod/salmon stocks and shut fisheries. Transmission runs through fishmeal into aquaculture/livestock feed costs and regional fishing economies; the modeled wheat/corn leg overstates the grain channel, though feed-cost spillover gives a thin real link.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Marine heatwaves and overfishing collapse a major commercial fishery, devastating coastal economies and protein supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Food inflation ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.