What if Oil-spike inflation scare forces a hawkish Fed hold?
A supply-driven crude jump reignites headline inflation just as the Fed eyes cuts, forcing a hawkish hold; real yields back up, the dollar firms and rate-sensitive equities wobble.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A supply-driven crude jump reignites headline inflation just as the Fed eyes cuts, forcing a hawkish hold; real yields back up, the dollar firms and rate-sensitive equities wobble. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist -0.83–+2.07% · other way +2.87% (n=8) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -2.22–+1.64% · other way +2.66% (n=11) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist -0.8–+1.19% · other way +1.63% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.96–-0.32% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.4–+0.46% · other way +6.94% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.79–+2.55% · other way +5.81% (n=7) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.97–-0.33% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.49–+5.29% · other way +7.29% (n=9) |
| 9 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.47–+0.84% · other way +0.51% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.16–-0.15% · other way +-0.0% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.13–+1.01% · other way +2.45% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.67–+2.56% · other way +4.46% (n=8) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +11bp hist -1.09–+17.75% · other way +12.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 70% | 18 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 69% | 34 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.8% | 67% | 34 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.1% · 5d +2.3% | 65% | 18 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -6.2% | 66% | 29 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -6.2% | 65% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 34 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +1.3% | 61% | 34 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 64% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.5% | 64% | 25 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -7.0% | 62% | 7 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |