What if Orderly yen appreciation as the BoJ-Fed policy gap narrows?
As the Fed eases and the BoJ tightens, USDJPY drifts lower in an orderly repricing; carry unwind is gradual, supporting global stability and a soft-landing risk-on tone.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. As the Fed eases and the BoJ tightens, USDJPY drifts lower in an orderly repricing; carry unwind is gradual, supporting global stability and a soft-landing risk-on tone. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Financial conditions ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -7.09–+9.57% · other way +22.43% (n=4) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.49–+2.16% · other way -4.3% (n=5) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.41–+1.44% · other way +10.66% (n=9) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.14–+0.9% · other way -0.2% (n=10) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.34–+0.94% · other way -0.68% (n=10) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.45–+1.37% · other way -8.44% (n=6) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.45–+1.32% · other way -1.26% (n=9) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.78–+0.43% · other way +0.56% (n=8) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.86–+4.14% · other way +1.0% (n=3) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.34–+0.19% · other way -0.69% (n=8) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.44–+1.57% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.65–+1.85% · other way -2.42% (n=8) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.54–+1.39% · other way -0.06% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 33 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -0.4% | 73% | 7 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -0.7% | 64% | 22 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -4.8% | 65% | 25 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.9% | 62% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 22 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.6% | 60% | 17 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d -1bp | 60% | 32 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 24 | 0.15 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -4.2% | 59% | 13 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 56% | 22 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d -1bp | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 24 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 24 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.4% | 51% | 31 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |