What if yen-funded tech longs unwind violently as USD/JPY collapses?
Yen-funded leveraged longs in US megacap tech and AI names unwind violently as USD/JPY collapses, deepening a Nasdaq drawdown via forced carry liquidation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Yen-funded leveraged longs in US megacap tech and AI names unwind violently as USD/JPY collapses, deepening a Nasdaq drawdown via forced carry liquidation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -17.25–-0.38% · other way -18.45% (n=9) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.85–-0.08% · other way +0.59% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -6.75–+0.87% · other way +9.12% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.28–+1.1% · other way +3.15% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -14.78–+0.99% · other way -1.05% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.59–-0.2% · other way +2.64% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -10.03–+1.31% · other way +5.86% (n=11) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.91–-0.13% · other way +1.02% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.87–+0.99% · other way +4.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.43–-0.14% · other way +0.91% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.06–+0.99% · other way -9.15% (n=12) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.82–+0.48% · other way +3.58% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.36–-0.18% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.4% · 5d -6.6% | 86% | 21 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -11.4% · 5d -5.3% | 79% | 24 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -3.8% | 73% | 30 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 38 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -1.9% | 70% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.4% | 70% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.2% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d +2.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 20 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -3.0% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |