What if a monsoon worse than 2022 submerges a third of Pakistan?
A worse-than-2022 monsoon is a Pakistani sovereign-default and FX event plus a regional food/cotton supply hit — not a US-credit shock. Rhymes directly with the 2022 floods that submerged a third of the country and pushed Pakistan toward IMF dependence and near-default. Transmission runs through the rupee, Pakistan dollar bonds, and cotton/textile exports to the EU/US; the modeled HY-credit leg overstates global spillover from a frontier sovereign.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A monsoon worse than 2022 submerges a third of Pakistan, displacing tens of millions and triggering sovereign default. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.