What if PBOC defends the yuan with offshore liquidity squeeze and bill sales?
To punish shorts, the PBOC drains offshore CNH liquidity and sells central-bank bills, spiking funding costs; the defensive tightening cools the China-reflation trade and pressures EM-FX.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. To punish shorts, the PBOC drains offshore CNH liquidity and sells central-bank bills, spiking funding costs; the defensive tightening cools the China-reflation trade and pressures EM-FX. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · China stimulus ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.07–+1.09% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.92–+0.08% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.49–-0.03% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 4 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.78–+0.1% · other way -1.77% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -10.86–+2.98% · other way -4.51% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.49–+1.38% · other way +22.15% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -11.74–+3.05% · other way +1.86% (n=11) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.16–+0.9% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.75–+0.17% · other way +0.54% (n=12) |
| 11 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.06–+0.48% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 12 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.01–+0.3% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 13 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.66–+1.2% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.58–+0.13% · other way -1.01% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.6% · 5d -15.6% | 75% | 16 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 28 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 28 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.3% · 5d -10.1% | 68% | 19 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 27 | 0.29 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.4% | 64% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 64% | 29 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -4.8% | 59% | 25 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 28 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 25 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | · |