What if China reveals it has tripled its gold reserves?
China disclosing tripled official gold reserves accelerates the central-bank bid and undermines dollar-reserve confidence: gold and Bitcoin higher, DXY lower, long-end yields cheapen on reserve diversification. Rhymes with the post-2022 EM central-bank gold-accumulation wave that structurally bid bullion after reserves were weaponized. Transmission: validates de-dollarization, pressuring Treasury demand at the margin. Forward angle: PBOC under-reports holdings, so a disclosure mainly confirms a known flow — the surprise is smaller than the headline, so fade an over-extended yield spike.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China discloses tripled official gold reserves, accelerating global central-bank accumulation and a structural bid under bullion. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.