What if thawing permafrost destabilizes Arctic infrastructure in Russia and Canada?
Thawing permafrost destabilizes Arctic infrastructure (Russia, Canada, Alaska), raising repair costs and stranding assets in a chronic-physical channel NGFS Phase V incorporates.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Thawing permafrost destabilizes Arctic infrastructure (Russia, Canada, Alaska), raising repair costs and stranding assets in a chronic-physical channel NGFS Phase V incorporates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.56–+2.12% · other way -4.35% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.02–+0.87% · other way -2.96% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.25–+0.02% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.37–+1.53% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.28–+0.27% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.36–+5.81% · other way -6.09% (n=11) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+1.71% · other way +2.85% (n=11) |
| 8 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.23–+0.56% · other way +15.1% (n=11) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.34–+0.37% · other way +0.06% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.81–+2.12% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 36 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.1% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.2% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +1.2% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 42% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 46% | 13 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |