What if Permanent European industrial gas-demand destruction sets in?
After repeated price spikes, energy-intensive European industry permanently relocates or shutters, structurally lowering EU gas demand and leaving the region with stranded import infrastructure.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. After repeated price spikes, energy-intensive European industry permanently relocates or shutters, structurally lowering EU gas demand and leaving the region with stranded import infrastructure. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.81–+1.0% · other way -0.74% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.7–+5.19% · other way -1.52% (n=10) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.67–+1.09% · other way +21.08% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.77–+1.13% · other way +3.35% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.43% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 7 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.94–+0.22% · other way +0.64% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+0.28% · other way +6.17% (n=10) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.45–+1.53% · other way +0.57% (n=11) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.35–+0.92% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.4% | 66% | 27 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +2.8% | 63% | 29 | 0.23 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 27 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 27 | 0.07 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 27 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.9% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 11 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +1.3% | 50% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.4% | 48% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 39% | 16 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 37% | 25 | 0.00 | · |