What if Permian associated gas pushes Waha basis deeply negative again?
Takeaway bottlenecks plus relentless associated-gas growth drive Waha cash to repeated negative prints, with producers paying to offload molecules until new pipeline capacity catches up.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Takeaway bottlenecks plus relentless associated-gas growth drive Waha cash to repeated negative prints, with producers paying to offload molecules until new pipeline capacity catches up. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.61–+1.87% · other way -0.26% (n=5) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -3.24–+10.06% · other way +10.6% (n=11) |
| 3 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -5.37–+9.25% · other way +0.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 20 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -5.0% | 68% | 19 | 0.27 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 20 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 20 | 0.15 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 17 | 0.09 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.7% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 52% | 10 | 0.03 | · |
| NG NG | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +0.1% | 45% | 17 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 43% | 20 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 36% | 15 | 0.00 | · |