What if a perovskite breakthrough halves the cost of solar?
A half-cost perovskite-tandem cell is disinflationary for power capex but a multi-year diffusion story; the only mapped leg, Freeport/copper softer on weaker module-metal demand, is second-order and small. No clean historical analogue; closest is any disruptive cost-down (LED, silicon learning curve) that crushed incumbent margins over years, not days. Skeptical: perovskite durability at scale is unproven, so 'overnight' is hype — treat as a slow grind, not a tradable gap.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A durable perovskite-tandem cell hits mass production at half silicon's cost, collapsing solar economics overnight. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.