What if a nation-state shuts down US gas pipelines nationwide?
Nation-state disabling of US gas-pipeline SCADA nationwide is a genuine energy-supply shock: Brent and especially US gas/distillate logistics seize, crude and refined products bid, equities sell on the deleveraging chain. Direct analogue: Colonial Pipeline 2021, where the East Coast gasoline crunch spiked pump prices regionally even as crude barely moved. Forward angle — a nationwide (vs. single-operator) hit would invert the usual pattern, driving gasoline/diesel crack spreads far more than flat crude.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A nation-state disables US gas-pipeline SCADA systems nationwide as coercive strategic leverage. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.