What if PLA Navy fires warning shots at US destroyer in the Strait?
A close-quarters incident during a US freedom-of-navigation transit leads to live warning fire; an acute risk-off wave hits Asian equities, SMH and TWD, lifting VIX, gold and the dollar.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A close-quarters incident during a US freedom-of-navigation transit leads to live warning fire; an acute risk-off wave hits Asian equities, SMH and TWD, lifting VIX, gold and the dollar. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +10.4% hist +3.56–+5.98% · other way -1.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.2% hist -2.14–-1.13% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.2% hist -3.47–+0.42% · other way +7.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.78–-0.89% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.5% hist -7.25–+1.52% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.3% hist -3.64–+0.21% · other way +2.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.42–-0.61% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.44–-0.28% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.27–+0.12% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.57–-0.44% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -9.23–+1.37% · other way +0.31% (n=11) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.82–+0.31% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -5.53–+6.38% · other way +7.18% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -5.7% | 70% | 23 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 16 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 65% | 33 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +0.3% | 63% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -2.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.9% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |