What if Plaquemines and Golden Pass ramp gluts the Atlantic LNG basin?
Rapid ramp of Plaquemines and Golden Pass exports floods the Atlantic basin with US LNG faster than Europe can absorb, pressuring TTF lower while still tightening domestic Henry Hub feedgas.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Rapid ramp of Plaquemines and Golden Pass exports floods the Atlantic basin with US LNG faster than Europe can absorb, pressuring TTF lower while still tightening domestic Henry Hub feedgas. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.34–+8.68% · other way -2.5% (n=9) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.53–+9.81% · other way -1.34% (n=10) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.7–+1.27% · other way +3.49% (n=9) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.03–+0.2% · other way +0.36% (n=10) |
| 6 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.12–+0.23% · other way -5.82% (n=10) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.97–+0.53% · other way +0.37% (n=10) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.3–+4.07% · other way +4.45% (n=9) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.35–+0.28% · other way +0.17% (n=10) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -4.52–+15.95% · other way +9.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -6.81–+15.14% · other way +5.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 72% | 15 | 0.29 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 24 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.8% · 5d -6.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 16 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 20 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 24 | 0.14 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 56% | 24 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 18 | 0.10 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.2% | 57% | 20 | 0.10 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 55% | 18 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 53% | 18 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +9.8% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 41% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |