What if a Chinese polysilicon blast doubles solar module prices?
A polysilicon-plant explosion doubles module prices and stalls solar installs, but the mapped TSMC/ASML semiconductor-fab hit is wrong: solar-grade polysilicon is a separate supply chain from electronic-grade wafers. The real read is solar-module inflation plus an industrial-metals/copper bid as buildouts shift. Rhymes with the Sept-2025 Grasberg mud-rush copper tightening on the metals side. Forward angle: Chinese poly capacity is so oversupplied that even a major outage may only dent the glut.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An explosion at a dominant Chinese polysilicon plant doubles module prices and stalls global solar installations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.64–+5.3% · other way +6.98% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -1.78–+2.94% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -6.83–+14.45% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.83–+8.61% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +2.4% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.17 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 13 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 19 | 0.13 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +8bp | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 52% | 13 | 0.03 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.9% | 52% | 13 | 0.02 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +1.9% | 38% | 7 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Specific plant explosion doubling module prices is rare/novel; mismatched commodity analogues signal low base rate. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.