What if a Chinese polysilicon blast doubles solar module prices?
A polysilicon-plant explosion doubles module prices and stalls solar installs, but the mapped TSMC/ASML semiconductor-fab hit is wrong: solar-grade polysilicon is a separate supply chain from electronic-grade wafers. The real read is solar-module inflation plus an industrial-metals/copper bid as buildouts shift. Rhymes with the Sept-2025 Grasberg mud-rush copper tightening on the metals side. Forward angle: Chinese poly capacity is so oversupplied that even a major outage may only dent the glut.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An explosion at a dominant Chinese polysilicon plant doubles module prices and stalls global solar installations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.