What if Post-Powell chair: a credible inflation hawk reanchors expectations?
A hawkish successor signals a higher-for-longer reaction function and a tougher inflation target, lifting real yields and the dollar while compressing inflation breakevens and froth in risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A hawkish successor signals a higher-for-longer reaction function and a tougher inflation target, lifting real yields and the dollar while compressing inflation breakevens and froth in risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.88–-0.27% · other way +7.46% (n=11) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.97–-0.28% · other way +2.04% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.97–-0.33% · other way +1.13% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.01–-0.23% · other way +5.49% (n=8) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.47–+1.35% · other way -1.1% (n=9) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.78–+1.61% · other way +6.73% (n=8) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–+0.9% · other way -1.48% (n=11) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -1.09–+14.28% · other way +7.3% (n=11) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -2.93–+17.14% · other way +5.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.09–+3.23% · other way +4.16% (n=6) |
| 12 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.1–+0.59% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.34–+1.68% · other way -1.63% (n=11) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.58–+0.2% · other way +4.54% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.5% | 80% | 38 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.1% | 73% | 38 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 66% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -6.2% | 68% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.0% | 65% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -6.9% | 63% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -4.0% | 65% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.2% | 60% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +7bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -4.2% | 61% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |