What if Quebec holds a third sovereignty referendum?
A third Quebec sovereignty vote is a CAD/Canadian-bank trade: breakup uncertainty pressures the loonie and TSX financials (RBC, BMO, National Bank, the latter Quebec-centric). Direct analogue is the razor-thin 1995 referendum (CAD and Canadian bonds sold into the vote, snapped back on the No win). Quebec is ~20% of Canadian GDP and deeply integrated via the US trade corridor; today's USMCA frictions add a second-order trade overhang.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Parti Quebecois forces third sovereignty vote, Canadian dollar and bank stocks slide on breakup uncertainty. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.