What if PBoC easing widens the China-US rate gap and accelerates yuan outflows?
Aggressive PBoC easing into a US high-for-longer environment widens the negative China-US rate gap to records, accelerating carry-driven outflows and bond-market depreciation pressure on the yuan.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Aggressive PBoC easing into a US high-for-longer environment widens the negative China-US rate gap to records, accelerating carry-driven outflows and bond-market depreciation pressure on the yuan. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · China growth ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.27–+0.97% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.11–-0.04% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.6–-0.09% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 4 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.88–+0.05% · other way -1.77% (n=12) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.29–+0.82% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 6 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.13–+0.44% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.06–+0.42% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.68–+0.07% · other way -1.01% (n=12) |
| 9 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.72–+1.16% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.92–+0.59% · other way -2.17% (n=11) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–-0.04% · other way -0.67% (n=12) |
| 12 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.04% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.48–+0.13% · other way +0.45% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 28 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 28 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 27 | 0.29 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.4% | 64% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 64% | 29 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -4.8% | 59% | 25 | 0.13 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 28 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 25 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -6bp | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 28 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.1% | 48% | 35 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |