What if Rebuilt OPEC+ spare capacity caps the war premium?
Restored Saudi and UAE spare capacity gives the market a credible shock absorber, capping the geopolitical premium oil can hold even amid regional tension.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Restored Saudi and UAE spare capacity gives the market a credible shock absorber, capping the geopolitical premium oil can hold even amid regional tension. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -2.7% hist -10.7–+3.79% · other way +9.07% (n=8) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.65–-1.54% · other way -7.67% (n=8) |
| 3 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.0% hist -7.18–+3.85% · other way -8.59% (n=8) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.35–+1.61% · other way -0.28% (n=8) |
| 5 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.81–-0.38% · other way -3.78% (n=8) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.53–+1.05% · other way +0.22% (n=8) |
| 7 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -4.84–+7.68% · other way +14.09% (n=8) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.78–+1.34% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -9.67–+11.49% · other way +15.95% (n=8) |
| 10 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.99–+1.33% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.81–+3.49% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 12 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.7–+7.53% · other way +6.81% (n=8) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.77–+2.82% · other way -4.3% (n=7) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -10.25–+13.2% · other way -1.36% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 6 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -8.9% · 5d -8.7% | 86% | 6 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +0.3% | 83% | 5 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -0.2% | 86% | 6 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.3% | 83% | 5 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.3% | 75% | 5 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +3.1% · 5d +0.6% | 71% | 6 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +2.0% | 83% | 5 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +13.7% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 70% | 4 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.0% | 70% | 4 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +7.1% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 5 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.4% | 71% | 6 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +5.5% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 70% | 4 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +1.7% | 75% | 5 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -5.0% | 67% | 5 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |