What if Simultaneous Saudi and UAE terminal outages?
Coordinated strikes shut major Saudi and UAE export terminals at once, removing a large, concentrated slice of Gulf loadings and sending Brent sharply higher.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Coordinated strikes shut major Saudi and UAE export terminals at once, removing a large, concentrated slice of Gulf loadings and sending Brent sharply higher. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.4% hist +3.19–+6.01% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.8% hist -2.75–-1.4% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.8% hist +1.0–+2.87% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.0% hist -0.5–+2.2% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.28–-1.19% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -3.1–+2.73% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.64–-0.35% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
| 8 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.8% hist +0.84–+2.16% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.54–+6.04% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.28–-0.75% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.8–-0.27% · other way +11.14% (n=11) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.69–+4.74% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.16–-0.01% · other way +5.94% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 72% | 35 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.0% · 5d +3.1% | 71% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 36 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +0.5% | 67% | 20 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.4% | 68% | 35 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.9% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 36 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.3% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 21 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -7.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |