What if Regional adaptation aid stabilizes Central American migration (good)?
Coordinated climate-adaptation and development aid stabilizes livelihoods in Central America, easing migration pressure; reduced regional strain and stronger local growth support a constructive backdrop.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Coordinated climate-adaptation and development aid stabilizes livelihoods in Central America, easing migration pressure; reduced regional strain and stronger local growth support a constructive backdrop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.55–-1.09% · other way -0.06% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.02–+0.72% · other way +0.59% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.14–+0.64% · other way +0.49% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -4.41–+13.18% · other way -1.67% (n=11) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.19–+0.64% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.39–+1.66% · other way +2.31% (n=10) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.16–+1.51% · other way -2.39% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.04–+2.87% · other way +6.03% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.64–+3.96% · other way +4.24% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.12–+0.94% · other way +2.66% (n=11) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.08–+0.45% · other way -3.47% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.37–+1.53% · other way -0.85% (n=11) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.21–+1.15% · other way -9.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 76% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.4% | 70% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.2% | 70% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.7% · 5d +2.5% | 62% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.7% | 63% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.1% | 63% | 38 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -5.6% | 59% | 35 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |