What if Regional peace shifts Gulf budgets from arms to growth?
A durable de-escalation lets Gulf states redirect spending from defense to diversification, a structural risk-on signal that lifts regional equities and FDI.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A durable de-escalation lets Gulf states redirect spending from defense to diversification, a structural risk-on signal that lifts regional equities and FDI. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -5.3% hist -3.59–+2.68% · other way +12.08% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.2% hist +0.77–+1.43% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.54–+0.98% · other way -0.58% (n=10) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -4.05–+9.91% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.09–+1.45% · other way -2.18% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.87–+1.1% · other way -5.15% (n=6) |
| 7 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.47–-0.01% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.27–+0.93% · other way -0.54% (n=10) |
| 10 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.62–-0.32% · other way +5.89% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.58–+2.37% · other way -8.14% (n=8) |
| 12 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.08–-0.03% · other way +1.18% (n=12) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.28–+1.68% · other way -1.09% (n=9) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.03–+1.05% · other way +0.4% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.4% · 5d +3.5% | 76% | 28 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -1.9% | 66% | 39 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 65% | 31 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +8bp | 64% | 39 | 0.24 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 68% | 31 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.6% | 65% | 31 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.3% | 60% | 37 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |