What if Renewables and storage erode US gas-power burn structurally?
Rapid solar, wind and battery additions structurally erode marginal gas-fired generation in key power markets, capping demand growth and weighing on the long-dated Henry Hub curve.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Rapid solar, wind and battery additions structurally erode marginal gas-fired generation in key power markets, capping demand growth and weighing on the long-dated Henry Hub curve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.93–+0.42% · other way -2.1% (n=7) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.02–+0.17% · other way -2.08% (n=7) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.62–-0.22% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.43–+1.3% · other way -3.2% (n=7) |
| 5 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.56–+0.2% · other way -2.58% (n=7) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.0–+4.32% · other way -4.91% (n=7) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.01–+0.6% · other way +0.0% (n=7) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.88–+8.89% · other way +11.52% (n=7) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.08–+4.04% · other way -2.46% (n=7) |
| 11 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.41–+12.23% · other way +7.88% (n=7) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.74–+0.12% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.79–+7.92% · other way +3.94% (n=7) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.87–+7.96% · other way +0.72% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +1.7% | 76% | 16 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 70% | 11 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -4.5% | 70% | 20 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +3bp | 67% | 21 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 20 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +11.6% · 5d +0.8% | 60% | 17 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 21 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +21.9% · 5d +6.1% | 60% | 8 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 18 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 18 | 0.14 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 21 | 0.11 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 11 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 21 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -8.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 11 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |