What if Renewables overgeneration drives negative midday power prices?
Solar saturation in California, Texas and Europe drives midday wholesale power negative for hundreds of hours a year, rewarding storage and flexible loads while pressuring inflexible baseload economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Solar saturation in California, Texas and Europe drives midday wholesale power negative for hundreds of hours a year, rewarding storage and flexible loads while pressuring inflexible baseload economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.98–+0.09% · other way -2.1% (n=7) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.98–-0.16% · other way -2.08% (n=7) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.81–-0.27% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.16–+0.64% · other way -3.2% (n=7) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.86–+6.23% · other way -4.91% (n=7) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.04–+0.6% · other way +0.0% (n=7) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.31–+8.77% · other way +11.52% (n=7) |
| 9 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.51–+13.11% · other way +7.88% (n=7) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.63–+3.55% · other way -2.46% (n=7) |
| 11 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.92–+0.16% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 12 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.38–+8.91% · other way +3.94% (n=7) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.09–+0.28% · other way -0.1% (n=7) |
| 14 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.99–+0.25% · other way -2.58% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 22 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +1.5% | 79% | 17 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 71% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +11.9% · 5d +0.6% | 64% | 18 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 65% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -4.0% | 65% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +22.7% · 5d +5.8% | 62% | 8 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +3bp | 62% | 22 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.1% · 5d -8.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 19 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 19 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.08 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 51% | 22 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |