What if Reshoring industrial load lifts US Gulf-coast gas demand?
A wave of reshored petrochemical, steel and chip-fab capacity along the Gulf coast structurally raises industrial gas burn, tightening the regional balance and supporting Henry Hub basis.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A wave of reshored petrochemical, steel and chip-fab capacity along the Gulf coast structurally raises industrial gas burn, tightening the regional balance and supporting Henry Hub basis. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.97–+1.64% · other way +5.37% (n=12) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.37–+3.62% · other way +2.28% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.49–+8.42% · other way +2.99% (n=7) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.47–+5.28% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.79–+3.24% · other way -2.03% (n=7) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.04–+0.16% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 8 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.88–+2.23% · other way -2.58% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.65–+2.29% · other way +2.52% (n=11) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist +0.02–+0.11% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -5.15–+17.19% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -4.56–+13.94% · other way -3.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 27 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 72% | 22 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.3% · 5d -7.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 12 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 61% | 26 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 12 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +6bp | 59% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 27 | 0.17 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 20 | 0.15 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 18 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.4% | 56% | 21 | 0.08 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.1% | 53% | 20 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 20 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.8% | 53% | 20 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 20 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 38% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |