What if core DNS and a major CDN fail at once?
Simultaneous root-DNS plus dominant-CDN failure freezes e-commerce and SaaS — same shape as a BGP meltdown: mechanical risk-off in crypto/Nasdaq beta that round-trips on restoration. The Jun-2021 Fastly outage (large CDN, swaths of the web dark for ~an hour) is the live analogue — zero lasting market damage. Forward angle: CDN concentration (Cloudflare/Akamai/Fastly) is the real fat tail, so the durable trade is the cloud-resilience/multi-CDN theme, not a persistent index short.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Simultaneous failures at core DNS and a dominant CDN take down a swath of the web, freezing e-commerce and SaaS. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.