What if Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe and forces full LNG pricing?
Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe (Ukraine transit and TurkStream), forcing Europe onto fully LNG-priced gas and re-tightening the TTF market.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe (Ukraine transit and TurkStream), forcing Europe onto fully LNG-priced gas and re-tightening the TTF market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -10.39–+1.53% · other way +9.59% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.05–+0.1% · other way -0.92% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.58% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.34% · other way +30.67% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.8–+4.99% · other way -0.88% (n=11) |
| 6 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.37% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.08–+1.81% · other way +8.97% (n=11) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.05–+0.16% · other way -6.59% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–-0.07% · other way +6.43% (n=11) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–+0.21% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.77–+6.82% · other way +4.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.62% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.51–+3.87% · other way +8.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -3.7% | 74% | 33 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 66% | 34 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 33 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.5% | 59% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.1% · 5d -5.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 16 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 33 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +5bp | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 47% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 47% | 22 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +6.1% ↺ fades | 48% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -3.2% | 43% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 40% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |