What if Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe and forces full LNG pricing?
Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe (Ukraine transit and TurkStream), forcing Europe onto fully LNG-priced gas and re-tightening the TTF market.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe (Ukraine transit and TurkStream), forcing Europe onto fully LNG-priced gas and re-tightening the TTF market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.