What if an explosion cripples the Sabine Pass LNG terminal?
A Sabine Pass blast removes the largest US LNG terminal (~30 mtpa) for months, sharply tightening Atlantic-basin gas and lifting TTF and JKM while widening Henry Hub's discount to global hubs; long TTF is the trade, EUR weaker. Directly rhymes with the Jun-2022 Freeport explosion, which idled the terminal for months, spiked TTF and depressed Henry Hub. Transmission: Europe depends on US cargoes post-Russia; forward angle: a Sabine outage is roughly twice Freeport's size, so the European gas and power shock would meaningfully exceed 2022.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A blast at Sabine Pass cripples the top US LNG terminal, removing major Atlantic-basin supply for months. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.