What if a drone swarm strikes Saudi Arabia's oil heartland?
A swarm strike on Aramco's Abqaiq/eastern hubs removing several mbd is a top-tier Brent event -- the +8.4% Brent and +2.6% inflation-expectations legs are the right magnitude. Direct rhyme is the September 2019 Abqaiq attack, which cut ~5.7mbd and spiked Brent ~15% intraday, the largest single jump on record. Transmission: Asia (China, India, Japan, Korea) takes the bulk of Saudi crude, so they are most exposed. Forward: post-2019 hardening and OPEC+ spare capacity shorten the disruption, so the price spike likely fades faster than the headline fear.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A large drone-and-missile swarm strikes Saudi Aramco's eastern processing hubs, removing several million barrels from global supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.