What if IMO carbon rules raise shipping costs and strand non-compliant vessels?
IMO carbon and fuel rules raise shipping costs and strand non-compliant vessels, pressuring shipowner credit and feeding transition costs into global trade prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. IMO carbon and fuel rules raise shipping costs and strand non-compliant vessels, pressuring shipowner credit and feeding transition costs into global trade prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Diesel ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.38–-0.21% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.73–-0.06% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.02–+0.38% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.27–+1.19% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+1.09% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.55–+0.53% · other way -2.35% (n=12) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.31–+0.02% · other way -2.47% (n=10) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–+0.11% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.12% · other way -2.57% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.54–+0.51% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.73–+0.6% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.54–+0.51% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.99–+0.47% · other way +20.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.16–+0.81% · other way -4.02% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -2.6% | 72% | 38 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.8% | 73% | 36 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 36 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.6% | 63% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.2% | 53% | 36 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +0bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 52% | 36 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 36 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |