What if simultaneous stablecoin and money-fund liquidations tighten short-dollar funding globally?
Simultaneous stablecoin reserve liquidation and money-fund redemptions tighten short-dollar funding globally, lifting the dollar and cross-currency basis as crypto plumbing strains TradFi rails.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Simultaneous stablecoin reserve liquidation and money-fund redemptions tighten short-dollar funding globally, lifting the dollar and cross-currency basis as crypto plumbing strains TradFi rails. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -11.67–+1.56% · other way -20.64% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -5.51–+0.84% · other way -10.71% (n=12) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -13.65–+2.24% · other way -8.12% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -11.25–+1.91% · other way -2.13% (n=11) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.94–+1.79% · other way +1.57% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.03–+0.48% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.9–+1.13% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.59–+0.05% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 10 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.73–+0.07% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.6–+0.05% · other way -0.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.15% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.64–+0.4% · other way +0.94% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.35–+-0.0% · other way +0.23% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.2% | 75% | 40 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -10.1% | 71% | 21 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -6.1% | 70% | 30 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -11.2% · 5d -8.1% | 71% | 24 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.6% | 67% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 36 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 37 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 20 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |