What if Simultaneous heat and wildfire smoke cut solar output during a peak?
Heavy wildfire smoke reduces solar output exactly as a heatwave drives cooling demand, compounding a grid-reliability squeeze and spiking power prices in the West.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Heavy wildfire smoke reduces solar output exactly as a heatwave drives cooling demand, compounding a grid-reliability squeeze and spiking power prices in the West. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.61–+9.06% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.04–+0.49% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.73–+1.75% · other way +12.35% (n=12) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.29–+1.86% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.03% · other way +27.66% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.82–+3.7% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–+0.4% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.74–+2.08% · other way -6.9% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–+0.42% · other way +0.46% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.33–+4.27% · other way +7.67% (n=11) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.56% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.38–+0.09% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.01–+7.65% · other way +25.88% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 32 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.7% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 71% | 16 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.0% · 5d +1.7% | 65% | 11 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 32 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 65% | 35 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 18 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +3.3% | 55% | 33 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.5% | 52% | 32 | 0.04 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +3bp | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +4bp | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 32 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |