What if cocoa and coffee crop failures spiked food inflation?
Cocoa/coffee crop failures spike soft commodities and add a salient food-CPI headline, but the channel is crop-specific (West African cocoa, Brazil/Vietnam coffee) rather than the grain complex the cascade defaults to. The defining rhyme is the 2024 cocoa squeeze that tripled prices to ~$12k/t on Ivory Coast/Ghana disease and weather. Forward angle: softs are inelastic and concentrated, so the price move is violent but the macro/inflation-expectations spillover is small — this is a contained commodity trade, not a broad inflation regime shift.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Cocoa/coffee crop failures spike soft commodities and food inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.