What if Solar plus storage hits rock bottom?
Solar-plus-battery LCOE falls below $20/MWh in sunbelt regions, making clean power the cheapest energy in history and undercutting fossil baseload.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Solar-plus-battery LCOE falls below $20/MWh in sunbelt regions, making clean power the cheapest energy in history and undercutting fossil baseload. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.44–-0.61% · other way -3.23% (n=10) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.89–-0.81% · other way -4.83% (n=10) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.16–-0.14% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.97–+0.81% · other way -5.83% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.36–+0.71% · other way +0.35% (n=10) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.61–+8.15% · other way +0.19% (n=7) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -5.42–+9.81% · other way +16.17% (n=10) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.78–+6.93% · other way +6.08% (n=10) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.7–+3.4% · other way +1.46% (n=8) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.32–+0.67% · other way +0.34% (n=10) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.56–+0.37% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.58–+8.56% · other way +6.61% (n=10) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -6.53–-0.37% · other way +7.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.9% · 5d +0.3% | 80% | 9 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +9.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 70% | 9 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.1% | 67% | 11 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 72% | 8 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -4.1% | 67% | 11 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.0% | 58% | 11 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.0% · 5d -6.9% ↺ fades | 61% | 8 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 10 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +18.4% · 5d +3.6% | 58% | 5 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 9 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.8% · 5d -5.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 10 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 54% | 11 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |