What if Steel-aluminum tariffs reset to 50%?
Washington doubles metals tariffs to 50%, lifting domestic steel and aluminum prices, raising construction and auto input costs and feeding a goods-inflation pulse.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Washington doubles metals tariffs to 50%, lifting domestic steel and aluminum prices, raising construction and auto input costs and feeding a goods-inflation pulse. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.05–-0.45% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.95–-0.15% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.8–-0.48% · other way +6.78% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.89–+0.03% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.66–+0.38% · other way +2.93% (n=12) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.21–+1.03% · other way -1.7% (n=9) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.67–-0.08% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.65–+1.91% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.44–+0.11% · other way +6.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.06–+1.11% · other way +10.41% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.44–+0.7% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.58–+2.44% · other way -6.23% (n=9) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.83–-0.05% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.17–+0.66% · other way +21.27% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.2% | 78% | 22 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 19 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 16 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 64% | 19 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -4.0% | 64% | 12 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 19 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -3.8% | 61% | 15 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.4% · 5d +7.2% | 61% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 10 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 19 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 19 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 19 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 15 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 19 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |