What if Sticky-core, soft-headline split: Fed trapped by divergent gauges?
Headline inflation cools on energy while core stays sticky on services, splitting the inflation picture and trapping the Fed between cutting and waiting.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Headline inflation cools on energy while core stays sticky on services, splitting the inflation picture and trapping the Fed between cutting and waiting. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.66–-0.35% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -3.85–+22.04% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.14–+1.24% · other way -0.51% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -10.07–+2.97% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -6.59–+20.9% · other way +15.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.68–-0.21% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.2–+4.37% · other way +9.81% (n=7) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.93–+3.4% · other way +10.12% (n=7) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.93–+4.76% · other way +0.35% (n=8) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.4–+1.2% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 12 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +4bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.22–+1.0% · other way +3.34% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.79–+3.42% · other way +17.0% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 17 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.8% · 5d -7.1% | 88% | 11 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.4% | 79% | 11 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -8.7% · 5d -9.3% | 75% | 9 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +4bp | 67% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.4% | 67% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 11 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.6% | 67% | 11 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 68% | 10 | 0.24 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 11 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 11 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.9% | 61% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 11 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 11 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.6% | 56% | 17 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |