What if Stranded-asset repricing hits high-cost oil projects?
A credible demand-peak and durable glut force markets to reprice high-cost oil sands, Arctic and ultra-deep projects as stranded, slashing their valuations and deterring new final investment decisions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A credible demand-peak and durable glut force markets to reprice high-cost oil sands, Arctic and ultra-deep projects as stranded, slashing their valuations and deterring new final investment decisions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.33–+0.1% · other way -7.57% (n=7) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.07–+0.04% · other way -7.91% (n=7) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.35–+0.24% · other way -1.97% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.13–+0.62% · other way -9.0% (n=7) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.91–+2.56% · other way +59.03% (n=7) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.83–+0.18% · other way -1.93% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.97–+3.34% · other way +28.89% (n=7) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.02–+0.26% · other way +0.63% (n=4) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.38% · other way -0.71% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.6% | 65% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.4% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.8% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -8.7% ↺ fades | 39% | 20 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 44% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 42% | 28 | 0.00 | · |