What if Sudden stratospheric warming triggers brutal NH cold snap?
A sudden stratospheric warming event displaces the polar vortex, unleashing extreme cold across the US and Europe that spikes heating demand and stresses power grids.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A sudden stratospheric warming event displaces the polar vortex, unleashing extreme cold across the US and Europe that spikes heating demand and stresses power grids. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · European energy ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.47–+1.49% · other way +9.34% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.78–+2.22% · other way +1.29% (n=7) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.07–+0.56% · other way +4.17% (n=11) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.79–+4.13% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 6 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.89–+0.71% · other way +6.55% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.36–+3.19% · other way -0.14% (n=7) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.05–+0.33% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.83–+0.24% · other way +0.94% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.87–+2.06% · other way +7.68% (n=9) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.29–+0.01% · other way +0.68% (n=11) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.0–+0.17% · other way +0.3% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.13–+0.56% · other way +1.47% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.91–+17.91% · other way +5.5% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +14.8% · 5d +2.6% | 71% | 22 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 34 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.12 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 52% | 34 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 50% | 24 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 40% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.9% | 46% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 44% | 25 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 46% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |