What if Indian and Thai cane shortfalls and export curbs spike global sugar prices?
Indian and Thai cane shortfalls plus export curbs tighten the global sugar market, spiking prices and raising packaged-food costs, a soft-commodity supply shock with EM export-policy amplification.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Indian and Thai cane shortfalls plus export curbs tighten the global sugar market, spiking prices and raising packaged-food costs, a soft-commodity supply shock with EM export-policy amplification. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.