What if Supply-side renaissance: chips, energy and labor bottlenecks clear?
Simultaneous easing of semiconductor, energy and labor bottlenecks unleashes a supply-side renaissance that lifts growth while pushing inflation lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Simultaneous easing of semiconductor, energy and labor bottlenecks unleashes a supply-side renaissance that lifts growth while pushing inflation lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.3–+6.0% · other way +2.99% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -22.37–+6.55% · other way -16.64% (n=8) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.9–+3.8% · other way +0.25% (n=11) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.15–+0.98% · other way -0.21% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.65–+2.1% · other way -13.5% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.29–+4.11% · other way -2.73% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.58–+2.71% · other way -8.68% (n=10) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.89–+1.85% · other way +0.89% (n=11) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.09–+1.09% · other way -2.4% (n=11) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.05–+0.57% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.58–+0.92% · other way -2.8% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.16–+0.72% · other way -2.97% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.43–+1.34% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -20.2% · 5d -10.0% | 100% | 8 | 0.69 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -0.1% | 81% | 10 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +20bp · 5d +5bp | 74% | 11 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.7% · 5d +3.9% | 71% | 10 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 74% | 11 | 0.37 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -0.9% | 76% | 10 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 65% | 11 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 10 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 10 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 10 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 10 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.3% | 65% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.8% · 5d +0.8% | 62% | 10 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 10 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |