What if record Chinese steel exports flood world markets and crush margins?
Collapsing domestic demand pushes record Chinese steel exports (>100m tonnes) onto world markets at distressed prices, triggering anti-dumping cases and crushing margins for EU, Indian and US mills.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Collapsing domestic demand pushes record Chinese steel exports (>100m tonnes) onto world markets at distressed prices, triggering anti-dumping cases and crushing margins for EU, Indian and US mills. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.88–-0.49% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -6.26–+1.39% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.17–-0.25% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.8–+0.09% · other way -5.17% (n=8) |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.24–+0.21% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.17–+0.24% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.24–-0.02% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.62–-0.19% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.66–-0.16% · other way -0.17% (n=10) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.96–+0.35% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.7–+0.21% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.73–+0.7% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.36–+0.15% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.1–+0.59% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.7% | 71% | 40 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -6.7% | 68% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 68% | 37 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.1% | 67% | 33 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -1.9% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.8% | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -14.2% | 60% | 19 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -3.9% | 58% | 32 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 37 | 0.13 | · |