What if Sweden's machinery and auto exporters face a global capex slump?
A global capex downturn hits Sweden's heavy-machinery, auto and telecom exporters, driving layoffs and corporate-credit deterioration that compound the property-sector stress.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global capex downturn hits Sweden's heavy-machinery, auto and telecom exporters, driving layoffs and corporate-credit deterioration that compound the property-sector stress. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.01–-0.24% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.84–+0.96% · other way +2.85% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.81–+0.15% · other way +0.38% (n=11) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.58–+2.64% · other way +2.29% (n=11) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.98–+1.06% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.63–-0.1% · other way +2.38% (n=11) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.97–+0.44% · other way -4.57% (n=9) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.48–-0.21% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.43–+1.76% · other way -0.35% (n=11) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.35–+2.78% · other way +3.79% (n=11) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.65–+2.71% · other way +2.73% (n=11) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.52–-0.22% · other way +4.12% (n=11) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.8–+0.35% · other way -1.87% (n=11) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.1–+0.06% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -0.9% | 69% | 38 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.3% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.2% | 64% | 12 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 28 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.0% | 61% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 38 | 0.16 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -7.0% | 61% | 11 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.4% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.2% | 57% | 17 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -3.0% | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |