What if Tampa Bay storm-surge cat: insurers exit Florida market?
A surge-driven Tampa Bay catastrophe pushes the Florida residual market (Citizens) past capacity, several carriers fail, and the dislocation widens US credit spreads and dents risk appetite.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surge-driven Tampa Bay catastrophe pushes the Florida residual market (Citizens) past capacity, several carriers fail, and the dislocation widens US credit spreads and dents risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.