What if broad import tariffs spike inflation and keep the Fed restrictive as growth slows?
Broad new import tariffs lift goods prices and inflation expectations, forcing the Fed to stay restrictive even as growth slows — a stagflationary bank-stress mix.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Broad new import tariffs lift goods prices and inflation expectations, forcing the Fed to stay restrictive even as growth slows — a stagflationary bank-stress mix. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.