What if broad import tariffs spike inflation and keep the Fed restrictive as growth slows?
Broad new import tariffs lift goods prices and inflation expectations, forcing the Fed to stay restrictive even as growth slows — a stagflationary bank-stress mix.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Broad new import tariffs lift goods prices and inflation expectations, forcing the Fed to stay restrictive even as growth slows — a stagflationary bank-stress mix. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.87–-1.05% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.29–-0.71% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.4–+0.06% · other way +0.6% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -5.53–+1.36% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.73–+3.95% · other way +9.81% (n=7) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -6.07–+2.0% · other way +5.65% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.42–+0.6% · other way +3.08% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -6.17–+3.22% · other way +10.12% (n=7) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -6.68–+1.89% · other way -9.3% (n=8) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -7.28–+3.18% · other way +0.35% (n=8) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -4.13–+0.82% · other way +3.87% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.39–+0.26% · other way -4.28% (n=8) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.33–+1.08% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -3.8% | 86% | 13 | 0.65 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.4% | 81% | 15 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -4.7% | 79% | 13 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 100% | 2 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.8% | 72% | 15 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +5bp | 68% | 21 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 72% | 17 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.6% | 72% | 17 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.2% | 72% | 15 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -5.2% | 72% | 15 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 72% | 15 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.2% | 67% | 8 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -7.8% | 68% | 13 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |