What if Tech-capex bust deflation: AI overbuild collapses spending and prices?
An AI infrastructure overbuild collapses into a capex bust, slashing tech investment and demand for chips and power in a disinflationary growth shock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An AI infrastructure overbuild collapses into a capex bust, slashing tech investment and demand for chips and power in a disinflationary growth shock. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -0.92–-0.46% · other way +2.86% (n=11) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.24–+1.37% · other way +3.01% (n=11) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.94–-0.35% · other way +4.45% (n=11) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.38–+0.53% · other way +0.77% (n=11) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.72–-0.16% · other way +2.03% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.05–+3.45% · other way +5.44% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -11.04–+1.38% · other way -14.77% (n=9) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.89–+1.18% · other way +1.29% (n=11) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.74–-0.1% · other way -0.17% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.02–+1.65% · other way -1.48% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.49–-0.11% · other way -0.35% (n=11) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -9.03–+2.0% · other way +0.8% (n=9) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.98–+1.19% · other way +2.79% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.8% · 5d -6.6% | 75% | 36 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -3.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 68% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -5.5% | 67% | 37 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.3% | 66% | 40 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -3.2% | 66% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.8% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.1% | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |