What if Tight gas and fat cracks drive a banner year for XLE?
A combination of spiking gas prices and wide product cracks drives a banner earnings year across upstream and downstream energy, lifting XLE, XOM and CVX to sector outperformance.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A combination of spiking gas prices and wide product cracks drives a banner earnings year across upstream and downstream energy, lifting XLE, XOM and CVX to sector outperformance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Diesel ▲ · Gasoline ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.38–+5.5% · other way +4.42% (n=6) |
| 2 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.2–+1.12% · other way +6.04% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.63–+3.81% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.64–+4.96% · other way -5.0% (n=6) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.03–+0.39% · other way +0.12% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.3–+1.2% · other way +10.37% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.17–+5.54% · other way -0.57% (n=9) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.05–+0.22% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.09–+0.45% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -13.28–+19.51% · other way +0.99% (n=5) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.34–+1.29% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.3% · 5d +6.3% | 67% | 9 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 70% | 23 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 21 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.4% | 64% | 22 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 28 | 0.19 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 28 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +6bp | 58% | 28 | 0.15 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 21 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -6.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 21 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 38% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.7% · 5d +0.0% | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |