What if Tooling-software backdoor scare freezes fab equipment trust?
Discovery of tampered firmware in chip-fab tools triggers a security audit that idles equipment and delays ramps, a niche but acute supply disruption.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Discovery of tampered firmware in chip-fab tools triggers a security audit that idles equipment and delays ramps, a niche but acute supply disruption. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.9% hist -0.75–+8.47% · other way -2.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.13–-0.29% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.39–+0.26% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.54–-0.03% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.69–-0.2% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.71–-0.23% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.65–+0.25% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.3–+1.12% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.2–+3.48% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.04–+1.59% · other way -17.76% (n=11) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–-0.12% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.16–+2.1% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.45–+0.86% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.57–+0.13% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -4.8% | 76% | 24 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -3.1% | 68% | 27 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +4.0% | 65% | 31 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.2% | 68% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -6.8% | 70% | 20 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.4% | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.7% | 61% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 29 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.7% | 59% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.7% | 61% | 29 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 28 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.3% | 58% | 30 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +0.7% | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |