What if fossil capacity shrinks faster than renewables scale, producing an energy price spike?
A disorderly shift away from fossil capacity before renewables scale produces an energy-supply gap and price spike, echoing Europe's 2021-22 gas-and-power crunch.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A disorderly shift away from fossil capacity before renewables scale produces an energy-supply gap and price spike, echoing Europe's 2021-22 gas-and-power crunch. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.26–+1.17% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.23–+1.44% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.37–+2.9% · other way +30.67% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–+0.37% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.84–+3.12% · other way +8.97% (n=11) |
| 6 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.67–+0.08% · other way -0.92% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.43–+0.87% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.59–+7.06% · other way -0.88% (n=11) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.05% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.79–+2.91% · other way -6.59% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.23–-0.04% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist +0.1–+3.76% · other way +4.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.24–+2.85% · other way +6.43% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -4.4% | 71% | 7 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.6% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 18 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +6.6% | 62% | 33 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 31 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 32 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 21 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 32 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 49% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 25 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |